Senior Bayesian Risk Modeler at VirtualVocations

A company is looking for a Senior Bayesian Risk Modeler to lead the evolution of their wildfire risk assessment platform.Key ResponsibilitiesRedesign annualized risk frameworks using Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian models to quantify uncertainty in wildfire risk estimatesDevelop and validate probabilistic models that propagate uncertainty from various risk factors to final risk outputsOptimize weather day selection algorithms and apply extreme value theory to characterize tail risks from rare weather eventsRequired QualificationsPh.D. in Statistics, Biostatistics, Applied Mathematics, or related quantitative fields preferred; a master's degree with significant experience will be considered6+ years of experience in quantitative roles requiring sophisticated statistical modelingProven mastery of Bayesian inference methodology and hands-on experience with MCMC samplersExtensive experience with Monte Carlo simulation and uncertainty quantificationAdvanced Python skills and proficiency with probabilistic programming frameworks